Regardless of whether or not anyone wins Powerball’s US$1 billion jackpot this Saturday, at least one of the losers is probably already known: Mega Millions.
Powerball tickets, priced at £2 each, are selling strongly, as lottery tickets typically offer advertised prizes in the tens of millions. In contrast, the next Mega Millions jackpot, on Tuesday, is a paltry £70 million. The two jackpots may differ by hundreds of millions, but the figure that helps explain why is much smaller. Lottery jackpots in the US never used to reach £1 billion. They have now done so 12 times in the last five years. £3. That’s how much Mega Millions raised the price of its tickets in April, more than doubling them from £2 to £5. And it seems that at least lottery ticket buyers really care about that difference, especially in an economy where Americans, weary of the high cost of living, are clinging to every pound.
Mega Millions tickets previously outsold Powerball tickets in 2024. Sales of both were roughly equal during the first three months of this year, even though Powerball has one more draw per week. But since Mega Millions’ 150% price increase in April, Powerball ticket sales have risen significantly. Mega Millions has sold 495 million tickets since the change on 8 April, generating £2.5 billion in revenue. During the same period, Powerball has sold just over 2 billion tickets, generating £3.5 billion, according to figures compiled by lottery regulator LottoReport.com from official reports. Powerball sales are likely being boosted because lottery players have been reluctant to shell out a few extra pounds, estimated Victor Matheson, professor of economics and gambling business expert at the College of Holy Cross. Americans have focused primarily on value for money following years of high inflation rates.
But the current surge in Powerball sales is not as simple as a product reaching a price point that puts it out of the market, Matheson said. Higher ticket sales translate into larger jackpots, which in turn attract more sales. This is partly due to changing purchasing habits and partly to Mega Millions’ bad luck, which has not had as many long streaks between big jackpots, increasing the size of the jackpot. A single ticket sold in Georgia wins the Mega Millions jackpot of £980 million Matheson said the odds of the games suggest that Mega Millions should generate large jackpots more often than Powerball, even among lottery players looking for bargains. But so far, that has not been the case.
‘I would say that Mega Millions has had a bit of bad luck at the same time that Powerball has had good luck,’ Matheson said. This weekend is the second time the Powerball jackpot has reached £1 billion this year. Its jackpot soared to £1.8 billion in early September. This gives it an edge over Mega Millions, which has reached nearly £1 billion only once this year, when its jackpot hit £980 million on 14 November. But even then, when Mega Millions had a big advantage in prizes, it often sold fewer tickets than Powerball. Mega Millions sold 23.5 million tickets in the days leading up to the 14 November £980 million draw, according to LottoReport.com. Powerball sold slightly more tickets, 23.6 million, although its £546 million jackpot was just over half that amount. Mega Millions raised its price with the expectation that it would offer large jackpots more frequently and thus generate higher sales.
‘Jackpots are expected to grow faster and reach larger amounts more frequently in the new game,’ the consortium that manages the game said in April. The consortium did not respond to CNN’s questions on Friday about its sales since the ticket price increase.
But because Mega Millions generates much more from each ticket, even at a slower sales pace, its long-term odds are good, Matheson said.
Much better, in fact, than the odds for Powerball ticket buyers this weekend.